Record El Niño threatens crops and global food markets

The strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean could become the most powerful on record and create additional risks for global agriculture in 2027. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the average sea-surface temperature anomaly in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific could reach +3.7°C in October–December.

If the forecast materializes, it would exceed the previous record of +2.6°C set during the strong 2015–2016 El Niño. The probability that the phenomenon will persist through February 2027 is estimated at nearly 100%, while its impact on the global climate could continue throughout next year.

For agriculture, the main risk will be disruption to normal rainfall patterns. The WMO forecasts a higher probability of below-normal rainfall across the Indian subcontinent, parts of Central America, the Caribbean and northwestern South America. At the same time, wetter-than-normal conditions are possible in the Horn of Africa, parts of Asia, South America and North America.

Such weather anomalies could negatively affect grain, rice and other crop production and disrupt international food supplies. The impact on global prices will depend on actual crop losses, stock levels and the ability of other producing countries to offset any decline in output.

According to the UN World Food Programme, El Niño-related weather anomalies could leave at least another 49 mln people facing acute food insecurity by the end of 2027. In 45 of the most vulnerable countries, the number of people requiring urgent food assistance could rise from around 225 mln to 274 mln under an adverse scenario.

Tags: grain, rice, Grains, food market, Эль-Ниньо