Record cattle prices in Brazil put pressure on beef producers

Brazil’s cattle market nearly came to a standstill on October 28, 2026, as a sharp increase in prices prompted sellers and buyers to refrain from entering into new deals. According to S&P Global Energy Platts, futures prices for fat cattle exceeded 400 Brazilian reais per arroba (15 kg of carcass weight). Cattle producers expect further price increases, while meatpackers face rising procurement costs and shrinking profit margins.

According to the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea) at the University of São Paulo, the cattle price index in São Paulo state reached 381.40 reais per arroba on October 26, the highest level since records began in 1994. Meanwhile, some meatpackers had already secured cattle supplies at approximately 390 reais per arroba plus an additional premium. After futures prices reached 400 reais, some sellers suspended new contracts in anticipation of more favorable pricing conditions.

One of the main drivers of the price increase has been the rising cost of calves and feeder cattle, which is pushing up production expenses for livestock farmers. At the same time, higher procurement prices for slaughter cattle are putting additional pressure on meatpackers’ margins. Market participants are finding it increasingly difficult to agree on prices for new cattle purchases and establish export offers for beef. As a result, spot market activity remains limited, although previously concluded contracts continue to be fulfilled.

Expectations of a recovery in Chinese demand for beef are another factor influencing the Brazilian market. According to market participants, some price indications for cattle intended for beef exports to China stand at around 380 reais per arroba plus an additional premium. However, uncertainty persists due to unstable demand and trade restrictions. In particular, on October 22, China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) suspended beef imports from Marfrig’s plant in Promissão, Brazil.

Exchange rate fluctuations and Brazil’s domestic economic conditions are also expected to influence future market developments. According to industry participants, record cattle prices may continue to discourage new transactions, as producers anticipate further price increases while meatpackers seek to contain costs. The recovery of trading activity will largely depend on Chinese demand and Brazilian exporters’ ability to sell beef at higher prices.

Tags: Brazil, cattle