Record Brazilian corn harvest could intensify global market competition

Brazil is approaching one of the largest corn harvests in its history, a development that could significantly increase competition in the global grain market. Despite periods of dry weather during the growing season, crop prospects remain strong, and farmers are preparing to begin large-scale harvesting of the country’s second corn crop, known as safrinha.

Market analysts note that weather conditions were not ideal, but they did not cause substantial damage to yield potential. As a result, Brazil is expected to produce what could become its second-largest corn crop on record.

The first volumes of the new harvest are already entering the market, while major export shipments are expected to begin in August. This is traditionally the period when Brazil emerges as a stronger competitor to the United States in global corn trade, offering large supplies to importers worldwide.

Particular attention is focused on China, one of the world’s largest corn buyers. Traders will closely monitor whether Chinese importers increase purchases of South American corn once the new Brazilian crop becomes available, potentially reshaping global trade flows and export opportunities for other suppliers.

At the same time, corn price prospects will largely depend on weather conditions in key producing countries. Global ending stocks have started to tighten amid strong demand, meaning that any weather-related production issues in the United States this summer or in Brazil during the next growing season could provide support for corn prices in the MY 2026/27.

Tags: prices, crop forecast, corn, Brazil