Record Brazil soybean crop on tap

With favorable weather and 90% of anticipated sowing complete, Brazil is projected to produce 177.1 million tonnes of soybeans in marketing year 2025-26, up 3.3% from the previous year, according to the National Supply Company (Conab).

Total grains production for Brazil in 2025-26 is estimated at 354.4 million tonnes, up 2.2 million tonnes, or 0.6%, from 2024-25, Conab said in its third Crop Progress report published Dec. 11. A projected decline in productivity from 4,310 to 4,210 kilograms/hectare would be offset by sown area growing from 81.7 million to 84.2 million hectares.

While down slightly from the 177.6 million tonnes forecasted in November, the soybean harvest, if realized, would still be a new record on an estimated planted area of 48.9 million hectares. Normalization of rainfall throughout the main growing regions allowed farmers to make significant progress getting the crop in the ground.

Overseas demand for Brazilian soybeans continues to grow. From January to November 2025, Brazil exported a record 104.79 million tonnes of soybeans valued at $42 billion, exceeding the 101.87 million tonnes exported for all of 2021, said Conab, citing data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC).

For corn, total production from all three harvests is estimated at 138.9 million tonnes, a 1.5% decline from last year. Planting already has reached 71% of the 4 million hectares allocated to the grain in this first cycle, with production projected at 25.9 million tonnes, a 3.9% increase over the previous harvest.

Rice is projected to yield 11.2 million tonnes, a 12% decline year on year due to current market conditions for the grain that has led to a smaller cultivated area estimated at 1.62 million hectares. In Rio Grande do Sul, the main rice-producing state, sowing has reached 98% of the area, while in Santa Catarina, another important rice-producing state, planting is complete.

Among winter crops, wheat is 98% harvested, and estimated production of 8 million tonnes is up nearly 1%, thanks in large part to predominantly favorable weather conditions throughout the season.

Tags: Brazil, weather, rice, soybeans, Production, sown area, estimate, harvest, corn