Rapeseed prices in Ukraine fall as stocks are depleted and traders switch to new crop

At the end of 2023/24 MY, the purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukraine started to decline amid low demand, as only a few traders are buying the shipments to be shipped in April-May. At the same time, traders are actively contracting new crop rapeseed for delivery to the Black Sea ports.

Currently, the Black Sea ports offer 380 USD/t or 17000 UAH/t for rapeseed, and despite the rapid rise of the dollar, traders refuse to raise prices.

amid the unblocking of the border with Poland has increased demand for the supply of canola to the EU by road, and buyers raised prices by 5-10 $/t to 450-470 $/t with delivery to Germany and the Czech Republic, but sales volumes are very low.

In 2023/24 MG, Ukraine exported 3.62 million tons of rapeseed, including 120 thousand tons in April, and the pace of exports is slowing.

Traders are contracting new crop rapeseed for delivery to the Black Sea ports at the price of 390-400 USD/t, which corresponds to the maximum price level of the previous season. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy forecasts the rapeseed harvest in 2024 at 4.1 mln tonnes.

the may Futures for rapeseed on the MATIF exchange for two sessions fell by 3.3% to 441,75 €/t under pressure from declining demand and significant stocks in European processors. At the same time, August futures for new crop rapeseed fell only 0.3% to 459.5 €/t (+0.5% for the month) or $491/t, as they are supported by forecasts of a reduction in the EU harvest in 2024.

Fears that the cold weather with excessive rainfall and frost in some regions of France, Germany and Poland may adversely affect the crops of rapeseed and cereals led to speculative growth of quotations on Monday.

the Agency MARS has increased compared to the estimates of March forecast the average yield of rapeseed in the EU in 2024 from 3.25 t/ha to 3.26 t/ha, which is 2% higher than in 2023 and partially offset the reduction in acreage. The forecast for wheat yields has been increased from 5.91 to 5.93 t/ha (2% more than in 2023), and winter barley yields from 5.95 to 5.97 t/ha (1% less than in 2023).

Favorable weather in Ukraine, Europe and Australia increases the pressure on the quotes of the new rapeseed crop, especially since after the high global harvests of 88 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY and 2023/24 MY, USDA expects the harvest in 2024/25 MY at the same level.

amid declining demand for soybeans in China, a significant soybean crop in the current season and forecasts of increased rapeseed crop next season, oilseed prices will be under pressure from overproduction.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, rapeseed