Rapeseed prices in Ukraine could rise by $15–20/t in September

Ukraine’s rapeseed harvest is virtually complete, with farmers having harvested 99% of the planted area and collected around 3.7–3.8 mln tons. This is the best result since 2022. At the same time, domestic supply is tightening, with the number of buyers already exceeding the number of active sellers, according to PUSK analysts.

Euronext rapeseed futures remain an important benchmark for the Ukrainian market. After rising to €550–560/t, prices corrected to €520–530/t. PUSK expects the market to stabilize within this range before potentially recovering to €540–550/t.

Ukrainian producers are in no hurry to sell rapeseed. Supply could remain limited in September-October, increasing mainly when global prices stop rising or undergo a correction. Under current conditions, PUSK expects rapeseed prices in Ukraine to gain around $15–20/t as early as September.

Higher logistics costs could limit domestic price growth. In October-December, a significant share of transport capacity will be needed for corn exports, potentially making rapeseed shipments more difficult. The Danube route remains an additional risk due to heavy infrastructure congestion and the security situation.

PUSK expects the medium- and long-term outlook for rapeseed prices to remain positive. If farmers hold back stocks instead of selling in September-October, marketing conditions could become even more favorable in early 2027, with January-February prices potentially exceeding autumn levels.

Tags: Ukraine, price, rapeseed