Rapeseed prices in Ukraine began to decline for the first time in the new season under the pressure of falling prices in the EU

The prolonged decline in rapeseed quotations in Paris began to put pressure on export rapeseed demand prices in Ukraine, which, after a staggering 10% increase in a month and reaching the level of $550/t, began to decline.

Export demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine have dropped to $530-540/t or UAH 24,500-25,500/t with delivery to ports, but the strengthening of the dollar against the hryvnia supports hryvnia prices at a high level.

A 12% drop in oil prices in two weeks has crushed EU biofuel demand and put pressure on European rapeseed prices. A sharp decline in EU rapeseed processing volumes in the second half of the 2024/25 season will increase old-crop rapeseed stocks, putting pressure on near-term new-crop futures.

August rapeseed futures on the Paris stock exchange fell 6.4% in two weeks to €462.75/t or $546/t, losing 2.5% in the month.

It is worth noting that the reduction in canola sowing areas in Canada and the reduction in crop forecasts for Ukraine and Australia continue to support November rapeseed futures at a high level of €481.75/t (-3.6% in two weeks), and the premium relative to August futures has increased to €19/t.

According to Oil World (Germany), in January-May 2025, the EU reduced the volume of rapeseed processing compared to the same period last year by 7% to a 3-year low of 10.2 million tons due to low rapeseed stocks, high purchase prices and falling demand for rapeseed oil from biodiesel producers, which led to a decrease in the profitability of processing. As a result, some enterprises switched to processing soybeans, which grew by 4% over this period.

Statistics Canada (StatCan) in late June estimated the country’s canola planting area in the 2025/26 season at 21.46 million acres, down 0.9% from the March estimate, 2.5% from the 2024/25 season, and 1.2% from the 5-year average. Despite the reduction in planting area, the canola production forecast has been raised to 19.2 million tonnes, significantly exceeding the 17.8 million tonnes in the 2024/25 season.

July canola futures fell by 7.7% in two weeks to 700 CAD/t or $513/t (+1.9% per month), and November futures fell by only 4.2% to 710 CAD/t (+6.8% per month on expectations of a settlement of trade relations with the US and China and the resumption of exports).

Ukrainian farmers are holding back rapeseed sales, understanding that its price will increase in October-November, while demand from the EU will remain high, and it will be possible to squeeze the maximum price level out of traders. However, it should be taken into account that in July-August rapeseed prices in Ukraine may decrease, as in Europe, under the pressure of increased supply in the EU and a further drop in oil prices.