Rapeseed prices in Ukraine are falling under the pressure of falling stock prices, and farmers are holding back sales

The heat wave that hit Europe last week accelerated the ripening of rapeseed but severely reduced the potential yield, especially in France and Germany. It will also reduce rapeseed yields in Poland and Ukraine. This will support stock prices, which are falling under the pressure of falling oil prices to levels that preceded the war with Iran.

In Ukraine, the heat with temperatures of 35–38 °C lasted for 5-6 days (while in France the heat lasted for 8-9 days), and from Friday there will be rains across the country, which will lower temperatures to 20-25 °C. However, in the western regions, which suffered from a spring rainfall deficit, the stress on plants from the heat will be more noticeable. High temperatures have accelerated the transition of plants to the maturation phase, so the rains will not improve the yield potential. Now producers have started harvesting simultaneously in both the south and west of Ukraine, although the gap between the start of harvesting is usually 2-3 weeks.

Export prices for rapeseed with delivery to Black Sea ports decreased by $10/t to $540–560/t over the week, depending on oil content, and processing companies maintain purchase prices at UAH 25,500–26,500/t ($500–520/t excluding VAT) with delivery to the plant.

Traders note low activity in forward sales of rapeseed for export at reduced prices by farmers, especially against the background that a few weeks ago prices reached $600-610/t. Processors expect that some farmers will actively sell rapeseed for hryvnia on the domestic market at the start of the season due to falling prices for barley and wheat.

At the same time, sunflower prices in Ukraine remain high, which will support rapeseed prices in July, as processors will actively purchase raw materials to ensure the operation of factories until the start of the sunflower processing season.

In the MY 2025/26, Ukraine reduced rapeseed exports by 39% compared to the previous season to a 9-year low of 1.9 million tons. In addition, for the first time in almost twenty years, the share of rapeseed exports did not exceed 60%, while previously it averaged 85%.

Demand prices for rapeseed with delivery to the western border of Ukraine remain at the level of €470-480/t or $540-550/t with loading on a European train, and with delivery to factories in the Czech Republic or Poland – at the level of €520-530/t.

The first data on yields in the EU will have a strong impact on quotes, as it is already clear that the rapeseed harvest in the EU will be smaller than last year, and the only question is by how much.

August rapeseed futures on the Euronext exchange in Paris fell by 1.8% to €508.75/t or $579/t in a week, while November futures fell by only 1.4% to €515.25/t (-3.5% per month), widening the difference with the price of August futures from €5 to €6.5/t.

Additionally, the Paris quotation is being pressured by an increase in canola sowing areas in Canada compared to the previous year by 8.4% to a record 23.4 million acres, although canola production will remain at last year’s level of 22 million tons (17.8 million tons in MY 2024/25) due to a decrease in yield caused by a delay in sowing and crop development due to low temperatures in June.

On the ICE exchange in Winnipeg, July canola futures rose 0.4% to CAD 741/t or $521/t over the week, while November futures fell 1.9% to CAD 735/t (-6.1% for the month).

Weather conditions in Canada next week will remain favorable for canola planting, which will continue to pressure new crop quotes.

Tags: rapeseed, Ukraine, prices