Rapeseed and canola prices remain under pressure from accelerating Canadian harvest and rising supplies

The global rapeseed and canola market remains under pressure from increasing new-crop supplies, primarily from Canada and Australia. High rapeseed prices in Europe are encouraging shipments from these countries, while disruptions to Ukrainian exports through the Black Sea are reshaping the EU’s import structure. November canola futures in Winnipeg traded near CAD 812/t, or $571/t, during the week, down 2% month-on-month. Forecasts of dry and warm weather in Canada over the next 7–10 days could add further pressure on prices by accelerating harvesting.

Canada’s canola harvest is gradually approaching completion, although progress varies by region. As of October 5, harvesting was completed on 72% of the area in Saskatchewan and 56% in Alberta, while Manitoba had harvested 86% of its canola area as of October 14. Increasing Canadian supplies entering the global market are intensifying competition among exporters. Meanwhile, during the first three months of the 2026/27 marketing year, EU rapeseed imports declined by 14% year-on-year to 871.5 thsd tons. Shipments from Ukraine fell from 600 thsd tons to 336 thsd tons, while imports from Australia increased by 35% to 185.1 thsd tons, and Canadian supplies reached 121.7 thsd tons compared with virtually zero a year earlier.

In the European market, rapeseed prices remain relatively high, although there is a significant difference between futures contracts. February futures on the Paris-based MATIF exchange rose by 0.4% over the past week to €559.25/t, or approximately $626/t, while November contracts traded near €522/t due to weak demand for nearby deliveries. At the same time, increasing Canadian canola imports into the EU is complicated by the fact that a significant share of Canadian production consists of GM varieties, while the use of the feedstock, particularly for biofuels, requires compliance with relevant European certification and sustainability requirements.

In Ukraine, domestic rapeseed purchase prices remained stable during the week. Processing plants that continue to crush rapeseed are offering UAH 19,000–20,000/t delivered to the plant. Meanwhile, export bids for rapeseed delivered to Danube ports declined by $10–15/t to $475–500/t due to rising freight costs. Prices at terminals along Ukraine’s western border remain higher at $500–520/t, reflecting differences in logistics costs and the availability of export routes.

Export bids for Ukrainian rapeseed delivered by truck to the Romanian port of Constanța stand at $575–580/t, while prices for deliveries to the Czech Republic are €520–525/t, or approximately $580–590/t. Further developments in the Ukrainian market will largely depend on shipment volumes from Canada and Australia, selling activity among European farmers and export logistics conditions. Increased canola supplies to the European market could intensify competition and lead to further declines in Ukrainian rapeseed purchase prices.

Tags: canola, prices, Canada, rapeseed