Rains in Brazil lower soybean prices on world markets and in Ukraine

Rains in Brazil are increasing pressure on global soybean prices, which is pushing down export demand prices in Ukraine. However, processors are gradually raising purchase prices and increasing plans for soybean processing amid a decline in sunflower harvest.

During the week, export purchase prices for soybeans with GMOs decreased in the ports of the black sea by 300-500 UAH/t to 17700-18000 UAH/t or 380-385 $/t, while processors increased prices by 300-500 UAH/t to 18000-18500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant. the Rise in prices of sunflower to 24500-25000 UAH/t and containment of sales by producers forces the plants to increase the processing of soybeans.

Export purchase prices for non-GMO soybeans this week in the ports of the black sea remained at the level of 455-465 $/t or 21800-22200 UAH/t, but the number of buyers decreased. At the same time, processors increased prices by 300 UAH/t to 21700-22200 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

As of October 10, Ukraine harvested 4.83 mln tonnes of soybeans with the yield of 2.28 t/ha from 2.12 mln ha or 80% of the area.

According to the Conab agency, in Brazil, as of October 13, 9.1% of the planned areas were planted with soybeans (19% last year), but the rains will accelerate the planting in the near future. In their first forecast, Conab experts estimated the soybean harvest in the country in 2024/25 MY at 166 mln tonnes, up 12.7% from 147.4 mln tonnes last season, due to the increase in planted areas by 2.8% to 47.33 mln hectares.

November futures for soybeans on the Chicago stock exchange for the week fell by 2.5% to 364 $/t (-6.7% since the beginning of October) amid improving prospects for the soybean crop in Brazil and high rates of harvest in the United States, where on October 13, soybeans harvested 67% of the area (51% on average for 5 years).

December futures for Brent crude oil on Monday fell by 6.3% to 74.3 $/barrel, which increases pressure on oilseed prices, especially amid declining demand from China.

According to the State Customs Service, in September, China reduced soybean imports compared to August by 6.8% to 11.37 million tons, and in total for 9 months of 2024 imported 81.85 million tons of soybeans, which is 8.1% higher than last year.

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Tags: Brazil, prices, soybean, Ukraine