Rainfall in the US has lowered wheat stock quotes, but prices remain stable in Ukraine

Favorable precipitation last week and forecasts of light precipitation this week in the US stopped the growth of wheat stock quotes, which fell by 1-1.7% over the week, although yesterday, after the USDA report on the deterioration of the crop condition, they resumed active growth.

According to USDA, in the USA, during May 3-10, the number of wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 3% to 28% (54% last year), and the share of crops in poor and very poor condition increased in Kansas from 44% to 51%, in Nebraska from 67% to 82%, in Oklahoma from 49% to 51%, and in Texas from 56% to 60%. At the same time, 53% of the planned area was sown with spring wheat in the USA, which is significantly lower than last year’s pace (63%), but higher than the 5-year average (51%).

July wheat futures fell for the week:

• by 1% to $233/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 1.2% to $252.2/t – for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 1.7% to $252.6/t – for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 2.5% to €208.25/t or $249.5/t – September wheat futures on Euronext in Paris.

The quotation supports high demand for American wheat. According to the US MSG, wheat exports from the country during May 1-7 increased by 2% compared to the previous week to 511.4 thousand tons, and in total in the 2025/26 MY reached 22.88 million tons, which is 12.6% higher than last year’s pace, with the USDA forecast of 24.5 million tons for this season.

Conditions for sowing spring crops are improving in Ukraine, and precipitation forecast for the next 7-10 days will allow work to be accelerated. A significant increase in wheat stock quotes and corn prices in Ukraine to $230/t delivered to the port supported wheat prices, although significant stocks and low export demand limit further growth.

Over the past week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine increased by 50-100 UAH/t to 11,000-11,150 UAH/t or $222-224/t for food wheat and to 10,750-10,800 UAH/t or $216-218/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Wheat exports from Ukraine for 8 days in May amounted to only 267 thousand tons (compared to 594 thousand tons last year), and in total in the 2025/26 season reached 11.6 million tons, which is 25% lower than last year’s pace (14.5 million tons).

Prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein increased by $2-3/t to $240-241/t FOB during the week amid increasing demand and forecasts of a decrease in the harvest in the new season.

Cold weather is delaying the sowing of spring wheat in eastern Russia, although forecasts of heavy rainfall in winter wheat growing regions are improving harvest prospects.

The May WASDE report will be released today with an updated wheat harvest forecast for the 2026/27 MY, so we expect new price jumps based on the report’s data.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat, USA