Rabobank experts forecast 20-25% decrease in wheat, barley and rapeseed harvest in Australia

According to Rabobank forecast, in 2023/24 MY Australia will increase the winter crops sowing area by 0.3% to 23.48 mln ha compared to the previous year, which is 5% higher than the 5-year average. However, the harvest will be lower than last year due to the drought caused by the El Niño phenomenon.

After three years of good conditions with abundant rainfall, when the country harvested almost record harvests of grains and oilseeds, this year’s season started with drier weather, although in April the amount of precipitation in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia increased.

The new season is expected to see an increase in wheat, barley and pulses, while rapeseed plantings are expected to decline. Compared to the previous season, the planted areas of wheat will increase by 2.9% to 13.44 mln ha (11.5% higher than the 5-year average), barley – by 1.3% to 4.27 mln ha (-10.4%), and pulses – to 1.77 mln ha (-8.4%). At the same time, the area under canola will decrease by 8.4% to 3.32 mln ha, which is 21.2% higher than the 5-year average. The decline in canola area was caused by falling prices and dry weather at the beginning of the season, which led farmers to prefer growing cereals.

In the state of Queensland, the acreage will grow by 3.5%, in New South Wales – by 3.4%, South Australia – by 0.3%, while it will decrease in Western Australia – by 2.1% (although it will exceed the 5-year average), and Victoria – by 0.2% to 3.5 million hectares.

In case of sufficient precipitation in 2023/24 MY, wheat production will amount to 29.9 mln tonnes (down 24% from last year), barley – 10.8 mln tonnes (down 24%), and rapeseed – 5.4 mln tonnes (down 35%). The total production, given the effects of the El Niño phenomenon, may decline to a 4-year low of 41.2 million tons.

The potential for exporting winter crops to Australia’s main market of Southeast Asia remains high, especially given the reduction in freight costs to the level of 2020.

Tags: Australia, barley, wheat, rapeseed, crop forecast