Quarterly US soybean stocks hold back sharper highs

Last week was marked by more intense buying movements on the CBOT for the soybean complex, with soyoil pulling the market after confirmation of the 45Z program in the United States, besides the release of reports on US acreage and quarterly stocks. Regarding acreage, there was a slightly larger reduction than the market expected, as well as an adjustment relative to the March planting intention. The report indicated an area of ​​83.830 mln acres for the 2025/26 season, against the intention of 83.495 mln—equivalent to 33.7 and 33.78 mln hectares, respectively—that is, still significantly below the previous season.

The main focus from now on will be crop development. US stocks are likely to tighten, especially considering the growing demand for crushing and the expectation of Chinese purchases in the fourth quarter, with the arrival of the new crop. Therefore, we cannot have major productivity losses; otherwise, stocks may be compromised, causing soybean prices to reach USD 11.00 in the next two months.

On the other hand, the larger quarterly stocks and slower exports of the old crop may bring some relief. Thus, there is no clear trend for the futures market in the short term, with lateral behavior in a range of around 50 cents, and a larger range, of approximately USD 1.00, between USD 10.00 and USD 11.00, depending on the progress of the US cycle. In the medium term, the new Brazilian crop may exert downward pressure on contracts, with probable increases in both area and production compared to the current crop. Therefore, in terms of the futures market, climate maps and crop conditions will be crucial.

Premiums in Brazil are extremely high and favorable in the short term, but this dynamic could change in the second half of the year. We continue to have a record supply of soybeans, and export commitments remain very strong—an undeniable fact. However, in terms of volumes shipped, the difference compared to last year is not that great. The initial projection for exports was 107 mln tons, but that number is not likely to be reached; in the best-case scenario, we will have around 104 mln tons exported.

The first half of the year was excellent, with the first quarter breaking records due to strong Chinese demand, which sought to avoid tariffs imposed by the trade conflict between the United States and China. However, exports may decrease in the second half of the year, which is seasonal.

Of course, we can have record exports; if we reach 104 mln, that is a very high figure. The point is that, despite the record exports, they may fall below the initial projection, which will leave carryover stocks very high—possibly exceeding 10 mln tons. The industry, already facing pressured margins and paying a high basis for soybeans, even with the return of B15, cannot absorb all this supply in terms of purchases.

Moreover, corn competes with soybeans at the port. Currently, there is corn in the open air at weak prices, and growers are focused on shipping corn. The summary of this is a very high spread between buyers and sellers, that is, a high local basis, large stocks of the product, and growers counting on a strong program of trading companies until the end of the year to increase the premiums for soybeans at the port. However, this may not happen.

Very busy line-ups indicate a certain urgency in guaranteeing sales by growers, but the programs are expected to start slowing down. If we reach the end of the year with plenty of stockpiles, thinking about October, November and December, the premiums may fall significantly, especially those for 2026.

Tags: Production, crop, stocks, acreage, futures, Market, soyoil, exports, Brazil, United States, soybeans