Putin has lost half of his scenarios for victory over Ukraine, — WSJ

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is now counting on two of the four scenarios for victory in the war against Ukraine. After previous plans failed to deliver the expected results, the Kremlin is betting on exhausting Ukraine through strikes on energy infrastructure and weakening European support for Kyiv, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Moscow previously relied on four main paths to victory. In particular, the Kremlin hoped the Russian offensive would lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian army. However, despite significant losses and manpower shortages, Ukraine’s Defense Forces continue to hold their positions. According to the publication, Russian forces’ battlefield gains in eastern Ukraine this year have been their weakest since 2022.

Another scenario involved using US President Donald Trump’s political pressure on Kyiv. Putin expected Washington to force Ukraine to accept territorial concessions and other Kremlin demands. However, Kyiv rejected demands to hand over territories that the Russian army has failed to capture. Even the reduction in US military and financial assistance has not forced Ukraine to accept Moscow’s terms.

Instead, Russia is now intensifying attacks on Ukrainian cities, critical infrastructure and port facilities. The Kremlin is seeking to disable electricity, heating and water supply systems, damage the economy, disrupt export logistics and increase pressure on Ukrainian society ahead of winter. Moscow hopes to exhaust Ukraine, worsen its economic situation and weaken its ability to continue resisting.

The second pillar of Russia’s strategy is to weaken European support for Ukraine. Moscow is counting on economic difficulties, rising living costs and the growing influence of populist parties opposed to aid for Kyiv to deepen divisions among European countries. However, European governments continue to support Ukraine despite domestic political disagreements.

Russia’s economic problems, including the budget deficit and substantial military spending, are adding to the pressure on the Kremlin. According to analysts, Putin will likely have to reassess his strategy in spring 2027. However, this does not necessarily mean Moscow will abandon its objectives regarding Ukraine.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, war