Prices for vegetable oils remain 10–15 % higher than last year’s

Global vegetable oil prices are entering the new season significantly above year-ago levels despite expectations for record production. According to USDA, global vegetable oil production is forecast to rise to 244.95 mln tons in 2026/27 from 238.75 mln tons in the previous season. However, ending stocks are expected to remain virtually unchanged at 30.8 mln tons due to higher consumption.

High crude oil prices and disruptions to vegetable oil exports from Ukrainian and Russian Black Sea ports are providing additional support to the market. October Brent crude futures are trading at around $88.5 per barrel, 34% higher than a year ago. Expensive crude oil is supporting biofuel demand, while vegetable oil prices are generally 10–15% above last year’s levels.

October palm oil futures in Malaysia rose 1.8% over the week to MYR 4,946/t, or around $1,224/t, putting them 15% above last year’s level in US dollar terms. In contrast, December soybean oil futures in Chicago fell 2.6% over the week to $1,493/t but remain well above the year-ago level of around $1,145/t.

In the sunflower oil market, new-crop supplies are already putting some pressure on prices. Indian bid prices fell by $20/t over the week to $1,470/t CIF Mumbai but remain 15% higher year-on-year. Russian sunflower oil for September delivery declined by $30/t to $1,330/t FOB, although prices are still 15–16% above last year’s level.

In Ukraine, sunflower oil bid prices declined by $20–30/t over the week to around $1,300/t delivered to Danube ports, 10–11% above year-ago levels. Meanwhile, European rapeseed oil prices fell by another $30–40/t to $1,390–1,400/t FOB Netherlands. Increasing new-crop supplies could continue to put pressure on rapeseed and sunflower oil prices in Europe.

Tags: Vegetable Oil, prices