Prices for soybeans in Ukraine increased slightly, but the market remains in anticipation of a record harvest from Brazil

Heavy rainfall in Brazil and a new wave of heat in Argentina make it difficult to predict the volume of the future soybean crop, which is definitely significantly higher than last year, which continues to lower world prices.

In Ukraine, export prices for soybeans with GMOs amid limited supply from producers have been rising for two weeks in a row, and have already reached 382-385 $/t or 18200-18400 UAH/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports.

Export prices for non-GMO soybeans increased by 5-6 $/t to 410-415 $/t or 19500-20000 UAH/t with delivery to ports or to the Western border of Ukraine, but processors have kept prices stable at 19000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

Volume of soybean exports from Ukraine from 1 to 22 January amounted to 157,3 thousand tons, and in January will be significantly lower than in previous months.

According to Conab, as of January 23, soybeans were threshed on only 3.2% of the area of 47.4 mln ha in Brazil, while last year the figure was 8.6%.

Analyst Dr. Michael Cordonier lowered the forecast of soybean crop in Argentina by 2 million tons to 49 million tons, which is 3 million tons less than the USDA forecast, but 1 million tons more than last year’s harvest. For Brazil, the production forecast remained at 170 million tons (USDA – 169 million tons), which is 17 million tons higher than in MY 2023/24.

March futures for soybeans on the Chicago stock exchange for the week fell by 2.1% to 384 $/t (+5.2% for the month) on expectations of the introduction of duties and possible aggravation of trade relations between the US and China.

China’s share in total soybean sales from the United States is only 47%, which is the lowest in the last 17 years (except for the period of the trade war). In 2024, China reduced the imports of soybeans from the U.S. by 5.7% to 22.13 mln tonnes (21% of total imports), while the supplies from Brazil increased by 6.7% to 74.65 mln tonnes (71% of imports), and from Argentina – almost doubled from 1.95 mln tonnes to 4.1 mln tonnes.

The European market expects a new soybean harvest from Brazil, so the demand for Ukrainian soybeans is declining. In the current season, the EU increased soybean imports by 15% to 7.9 mln tonnes, in particular from Brazil from 27% to 31%, from Ukraine – from 8% to 11.1%, while decreased supplies from the US from 55% to 51%.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, soybean