Port attacks could push russian wheat exports below 2 mln tons per month

Russia’s wheat exports could fall to 1.75 mln tons in September 2026, according to the Rusagrotrans analytical center. This would be 2.8 times lower than in September last year, when shipments reached 4.9 mln tons. Amid persistent disruptions at ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin, monthly russian wheat exports could therefore fall below 2 mln tons.

The main constraint remains disruptions to shipments through southern ports, which traditionally handle the bulk of russian grain exports. Alternative routes via the Baltic, Caspian and land crossings have so far been unable to fully compensate for the loss of southern capacity. As a result, significant volumes of the new crop remain on the domestic market, while export potential is being utilized only partially.

Risks to port logistics remain high. On the night of September 9, Novorossiysk was hit by another drone attack. Reports indicated, among other things, a strike in the area of the KSK grain terminal, although the extent of possible damage to grain infrastructure remains unclear.

Lower russian shipments are meanwhile supporting the global wheat market. In early September, Saudi Arabia cancelled a grain purchase tender amid high offer prices, while futures resumed their upward trend after a brief correction. According to Rusagrotrans, escalating tensions in the Azov-Black Sea basin and blocked shipments from southern ports remain among the factors supporting prices.

If restrictions in the Azov-Black Sea basin persist, russia could continue exporting significantly less wheat than its crop and export potential would normally allow. The September forecast of 1.75 mln tons indicates that rerouting cargoes through alternative corridors has so far failed to offset disruptions to traditional southern logistics.

Tags: export, wheat, Russia