Polish wheat hits PLN 1,000/t amid disruptions to Ukrainian exports

Wheat prices at the Port of Gdansk have reached PLN 1,000/t for the first time, equivalent to around UAH 11,500/t. Expectations of a significant decline in Ukrainian wheat exports due to maritime logistics disruptions are among the factors supporting the Polish market, according to farmer.pl, citing Agri Commodity Experts analyst Mateusz Palejko.

European analysts estimate that Ukraine could export only 5–10 mln tons of wheat in the 2026/27 season, compared with 14 mln tons in 2025/26 and 15.7 mln tons in 2024/25. This outlook is significantly more pessimistic than USDA’s latest forecast of 13.5 mln tons.

The main risks include disruptions at Ukraine’s Greater Odesa ports, congestion on alternative export routes and the possibility of further escalation in the Black Sea. In the first half of August alone, Ukraine’s agricultural exports fell to 790.7 thsd tons from 1.849 mln tons in the first half of July, a decline of around 57%.

Logistics disruptions have led to a sharp divergence between wheat prices in Ukraine and Poland. While wheat in Gdansk is valued at around PLN 1,000/t, farm-gate prices in Ukraine stand at only UAH 4,000–4,500/t, rising to around UAH 7,000/t at elevators. As a result, the gap between Polish prices and Ukrainian farm-gate prices exceeds UAH 7,000/t.

One of the main reasons for this price gap is the sharp increase in overland logistics costs, which have risen by around $50/t. Limited access to deep-sea ports is forcing Ukrainian exporters to rely more heavily on expensive alternative routes, putting pressure on domestic purchase prices in Ukraine while supporting prices in neighboring European markets.

Tags: prices, Poland, wheat