Poland’s grain harvest to fall 9%, rapeseed output by more than 20%

Poland’s grain harvest could decline by around 9% in 2026 due to unfavorable weather conditions throughout the growing season. According to the Polish Ministry of Agriculture, grain production is forecast at around 33.6 mln tons, down 3.4 mln tons from last year.

Wheat production is expected at 12.2 mln tons, compared with 13.5 mln tons in 2025 and a five-year average of nearly 13 mln tons. Meanwhile, the corn harvest is expected to exceed 9 mln tons, remaining broadly in line with the country’s average.

The sharpest decline is forecast for rapeseed. Production could fall by more than 20% to 2.83 mln tons, compared with around 3.6 mln tons last year and a five-year average of 3.5 mln tons. Such a decline could cost Poland its position as the EU’s third-largest rapeseed producer.

Barley production, however, is estimated at 3.4 mln tons, above the five-year average of less than 3 mln tons. This highlights significant differences in crop performance during the 2026 season.

Adverse weather was the main reason for the lower harvest. Winter temperatures near the soil surface locally fell below -25°C amid insufficient snow cover, while late-April frosts reached as low as -9°C. Crops subsequently suffered from a rainfall deficit, while heat, thunderstorms, hail, storms and strong winds created additional challenges in June and July.

Tags: corn, grain, Poland, wheat, rapeseed