Pig farming: Updated estimates for 2025 – USDA

On April 10, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released updates on the global meat sector. Regarding pig farming, it is worth paying attention to the data on China, Europe, and the United States. The first point that stands out in this April report was that the USDA’s official projections for China converged with the numbers released by the attaché in Beijing last month. In other words, regarding production, consumption, and exports, just a few changes are expected in 2025 in comparison to 2024.

For Chinese production, USDA predicted 57.00 mln tons in 2025, down 0.11% from 57.06 mln tons last year. For consumption in 2025, 58.20 mln tons were estimated, compared to 57.27 mln in 2024. Thus, the need for imports remained stagnant at 1.30 mln tons. The Chinese became the third-largest importer of pork in the world, behind Mexico and Japan.

China’s herd is expected to fall again this year, but the number of animals is sufficient to meet the current market dynamics. The herd of matrices at the beginning of 2025 was indicated at 40.78 mln head, down 1.55% compared to the 41.42 mln head at the beginning of 2024. It is worth noting that the Chinese government’s target for the market equilibrium point is 39 mln head. Today, China needs a smaller herd of matrices due to the increase in birth rate, a result of the strong investment made since the African swine fever crisis.

Tariffs around the world and their possible consequences are currently under discussion. With the 125% tariffs announced by China on US products, including pork, it is natural for the Asian country to seek more affordable options in the global market, such as in Europe and Brazil. On the other hand, it is worth noting that the Chinese economy has not shown great strength this year, with consumer confidence shaken, so much so that the Chinese government has been adopting expansionist measures, for example, cheaper credit and reduction in the prime interest rate. Thus, China will continue to import but without the need to increase volumes, being able to bargain prices.

United States – USDA projected US pork production this year at 12.742 mln tons compared to 12.612 mln tons in 2024, an increase of 1.03%. Consumption in 2025 was estimated at 10.093 mln tons, up 1.72% from the 9.922 mln tons estimated last year. The United States will be the largest exporter of pork in the world market in 2025, with a projection of 3.155 mln tons, but down 2.23% from 2024, when it reached 3.227 mln tons. Tariffs are an important point and may further impact the level of exports in the future, considering that besides China, there is a conflict between the United States and Mexico, remembering that the Mexicans are the largest global pork importers.

European Union – The bloc’s 2025 production was estimated at 21.050 mln tons by USDA, down 0.94% from 21.250 mln tons estimated for last year. Consumption in Europe is expected to fall by 0.47% in 2025, from 18.336 to 18.250 mln tons. The bloc is expected to export 2.9 mln tons in 2025, a 3.78% decline compared to 3.014 mln tons in 2024. Spain is expected to remain the bloc’s largest exporter, having recently deepened ties with China in an attempt to capture potential market share that the United States will lose due to tariffs.

The big issue regarding the European Union is its level of competitiveness, which has been falling year after year. The advancement of environmental policies, regulations, phytosanitary requirements, and other issues lead to increased production costs and narrowing margins. Although pork prices in Europe are high, they do not stimulate production, with farmers seeing small future gains. The European pig herd by the end of 2025 was estimated at 128.7 mln head, down 2.6% from 132.141 mln head at the end of 2024. At the end of 2020, the herd was 145.911 mln head, and since then it has decreased by 11.8%. The bloc can still export considerable volumes due to its geographical location, supplying Asian countries, but it should continue to lose global market share over the next few years, which is a great opportunity for Brazil to boost exports.

Tags: USDA, pig herd, pork, tariffs, Brazil, meat sector, prices, United States, Europe, European Union, Production, China, consumption, exports, pig farming