Philippines to increase rice and corn imports as crop outlook weakens
Rice production in the Philippines is expected to decline in 2026/27 due to El Niño and high fertilizer costs, which are weighing on planting incentives. According to FAS USDA, milled rice production is forecast at 12.25 mln tons, down from 12.36 mln tons a year earlier.
Domestic rice consumption is estimated at 17.65 mln tons, as population growth continues to support demand despite high retail prices. Imports are forecast at around 5.2 mln tons to cover the expected production shortfall.
The corn production forecast was also lowered to 8.05 mln tons from 8.2 mln tons in 2025/26. The main reason is weaker yields due to irrigation risks that are also affecting rice production.
At the same time, corn demand is expected to rise on continued growth in the poultry sector. FAS forecasts corn imports to increase sharply to 2.9 mln tons to meet feed industry demand.
The Philippine government is also considering an expansion of the corn import quota, while the agriculture and energy departments are exploring corn as a feedstock for ethanol production. Wheat consumption and imports are expected to remain stable in 2026/27.
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