Philippines set to increase coconut oil exports as production recovers

Philippines, a key global supplier of coconut oil, is expected to expand production and exports in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The outlook reflects improving copra output and higher processing efficiency after weather conditions normalized.

Coconut oil exports are projected to rise to 1.19 million tonnes in 2026/27, compared with an estimated 1.13 million tonnes in the current year. The increase is driven by higher copra crushing volumes and improved oil extraction rates. Exporters, however, continue to focus on established markets while adapting to evolving quality and sustainability requirements.

Despite the growth outlook, export volumes are expected to remain below 2024/25 levels as a larger share of production is directed to domestic consumption, including food use and biodiesel blending programs. Imports are forecast to stay stable at around 90,000 tonnes.

Total coconut oil production is projected to increase to 1.76 million tonnes, up 3.5% year-on-year, supported by stronger copra availability. This reflects better utilization of existing processing capacity rather than expansion, as no new mills are expected during the forecast period.

USDA notes that production remains highly sensitive to weather conditions and dependent on smallholder farming systems. While coconut-growing areas are slightly expanding, output growth continues to rely mainly on climate conditions and tree productivity rather than structural expansion of plantations.