Paraguay corn exports expected to fall

Paraguay’s corn exports are projected to decline by 12% to 2.9 million tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing year, as rising domestic demand driven by ethanol production and feed consumption continues to tighten exportable supplies, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The FAS forecast the country’s corn consumption to reach a record of 2.4 million tonnes, with demand for ethanol use reaching 1.5 million tonnes in 2025-26.

“Paraguay’s bioethanol industry continues to expand,” the FAS said. “Two large-scale ethanol plants are currently operating at full capacity, and a third plant currently under refurbishment is expected to resume operations by mid-2025.

“Once fully online, the plant will consume an estimated 420,000 to 450,000 tonnes of corn annually, beginning in calendar year 2026.”

However, corn demand could be curtailed in coming years as the ethanol sector has begun exploring the use of sorghum as a partial substitute, it noted.

“Sorghum offers greater drought resilience and requires lower production investment, though it generally yields less and commands lower prices than corn,” the FAS said.

Corn production in Paraguay for the coming marketing year is forecast at 5.2 million tonnes, unchanged from 2024-25, the FAS said.

While total planted area is projected to decline to 900,000 hectares, down 70,000 from the previous year, average yields are expected to improve under the assumption of normal weather conditions, the FAS said.

Corn stocks in 2025-26 are forecast at 250,000 tonnes, roughly equivalent to one month of domestic use as grain users and traders tend to draw down stocks ahead of harvest to make room for incoming supplies.

“This lean inventory strategy is typical in Paraguay’s corn market, where storage is limited and cash flow considerations often incentivize pre-harvest sales or exports,” the FAS said.

Tags: ethanol, Paraguay, consumption, sorghum, exports, corn, Production, Feed, forecast