Palm oil prices fell 5.4% since Monday, but soybeans and sunflowers remain stable

Vegetable oil markets remain under pressure from uncertainty with production and supplies of sunflower oil from Ukraine keeping soybean oil prices high. At the same time, palm oil prices are falling against the background of reduced demand for it and falling oil prices.

January Brent oil futures fell by 2% to $93.3/barrel from Monday amid new cases of covid diseases and the possible introduction of lockdowns in China, as well as the introduction of price restrictions on Russian oil from December.

December palm oil futures in Malaysia fell 5.4% from the start of the week to 4,066 ringgit/t or $894.5/t, although the country increased palm oil exports by 10 from November 1-15 compared to the same period in October -12.7%.

In addition to the drop in oil prices, quotations are pressured by a reduction in palm oil imports to India in the 2021/22 FY (which ended on October 31) by 4.8% compared to the previous season – from 8.3 to 7.9 million tons, as imports of soybean oil rose by 45.3% to a record high level against the background of reduced supplies of sunflower oil.

December soybean oil futures in Chicago rebounded to $1,696/t yesterday after falling slightly on Monday, adding 2.7% for the week, 4.8% for the fortnight and 15% for the month amid strong demand.

According to data from the Soybean Processors Association (NOPA), in October, the volume of soybean processing in the US increased by 17% compared to September to 5.02 million tons, which is 0.2% higher than in October 2021.

Demand prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil for delivery to Bulgarian ports increased by $30-50/t to $1,200-1,250/t DAP during the week, while in Ukrainian ports they remained at $1,000-1,050/t CPT due to uncertainty with exports after November 19.

As a result of the massive missile attack on Ukraine on November 15, when the Russians launched 90 missiles and 10 kamikaze drones, many energy infrastructure facilities were damaged, which hindered the operation of oil extraction plants in Ukraine.

Thanks to the work of the grain corridor, Ukraine exported 1.2 million tons of sunflower oil in 2022/23 MR, as of November 15, out of the USDA forecast of 3.6 million tons, while in 2021/22 MR, exports amounted to 4.465 million tons, and in 2020/21 MR – 5.27 million tons.

According to the USDA’s November forecast, in 2022/23, Turkey may increase the import of sunflower by 86.85% or 581 thousand tons to 1.25 million tons compared to the previous season and reduce the import of sunflower oil by 38.84% or 508 thousand tons up to 800 thousand tons

Tags: sunflower oil, soybean oil, prices, palm oil