Pakistan’s actual wheat crop may be nearly 4 mln tons below official estimate

Pakistan’s actual wheat production in 2026 may have amounted to around 26 mln tons, significantly below the government’s official estimate of 29.8 mln tons. The Cereal Association of Pakistan puts the crop at the lower figure and considers the government’s estimate inaccurate. The gap between the two estimates reaches 3.8 mln tons and may partly explain the current pressure on the domestic market.

At the same time, even under the lower production estimate, Pakistan’s problem is not solely related to the physical availability of grain. Significant volumes of wheat remain in private storage, while state-owned PASSCO also holds substantial stocks. The government recently authorized the release of 1.2 mln tons of wheat from PASSCO warehouses to the provinces, exceeding the 1 mln tons that the federal government has decided to import.

Amid uncertainty over the domestic balance, wheat prices have risen sharply. Prices increased from around Rs 3,300 per 40 kg in January to Rs 4,700 currently. Immediately after the harvest, farmers who needed liquidity and lacked storage capacity were forced to sell wheat at Rs 3,000–3,200 per 40 kg, while by late July the same grain was trading above Rs 4,500.

Market participants attribute the situation not only to lower yields but also to changes in the state procurement system. Over the past three seasons, Pakistan has moved away from large-scale government intervention toward a new model that still lacks a fully functioning system of credit, warehouse receipts and regulated storage. As a result, small farmers who need cash immediately after harvest remain dependent on intermediaries and are often forced to sell grain at low prices.

The situation is already affecting farmers’ production decisions. Following previous losses, some growers reduced fertilizer application, which farmer organizations estimate may have lowered yields by 3–5 maunds per acre. Wheat acreage has also been declining as farmers shift toward oilseeds. Experts are therefore calling for key elements of the reform to be implemented before November, when farmers will decide how much wheat to plant for the 2027 harvest.

Tags: Pakistan, wheat, crop forecast