Pakistan wheat output down from a year ago

Pakistani wheat production was revised higher and imports lower in the latest forecast from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Reflecting recently released government data, the 2025-26 wheat production estimate rose by 500,000 tonnes from the previous quarterly projection to 29 million tonnes. That is still well below last year’s record output of 31.8 million tonnes, the FAS noted.

“The decline in production (year on year) was due to a 5.5% decrease in area from the previous year,” the FAS said. “The lack of a government-guaranteed price and the expectations for low prices were the main reason for the reduction in area.

“In addition, high temperatures during the sowing season and then an extended dry spell after sowing contributed to the 3.3% drop in yields.”

Despite strong protests from producer organizations and the farming community, the Pakistani government remains unwavering in its policy of non-intervention in the wheat market, the FAS noted.

For the first time in decades, the government failed to disclose, ahead of planting, if it would purchase domestically produced wheat in 2025 and a specific support price.

The support price historically has been announced prior to the start of the seeding program to provide farmers with an incentive to grow wheat by way of a floor price for their grain when harvest commences in the spring.

While farmers remain dissatisfied, the decline in wheat prices has translated into lower flour costs, benefiting consumers. Wheat flour prices dropped 10% from June 2024 to May 2025, the FAS said.

Due to the upward revision in wheat production and the increase in stocks, the 2025-26 import forecast is cut in half from the previous forecast to 1 million tonnes, the FAS said. Because of last year’s record crop and an import ban imposed by the government, only 100,000 tonnes were imported in 2024-25.

Tags: Pakistan, wheat, crop forecast