North American wheat market grapples with adverse weather conditions

CBOT wheat futures for July rose 13.25 cents/bushel on the day to settle at 620.25 cents/bu on April 23, while Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures rallied 29.25 cents/bu to their highest level since June 2024 at 679.25 cents/bu. The gains reflected growing unease about crop development across the key producing states across the US Plains.

“Hard red winter has a lot of production concerns,” a US trader said about the driver behind the futures rallies.

“Dryness and a warm spring led to widespread degradation,” the US Drought Monitor said in its April 23 update. “Extreme drought expanded across central and western Nebraska and into northwest Kansas. Severe drought expanded in central and southwest Kansas, with a new extreme drought in far southwest Kansas.”

Cold weather also poses a threat to crops, with a new storm expected to expand into the US Plains over the weekend, the US Department of Agriculture said in its April 23 daily Agricultural Weather Highlights report.

Winter wheat conditions were significantly worse than the previous year, with 33% of wheat in poor to very poor condition, compared to 21% from the previous year. Texas showed the worst conditions, with 25% of winter wheat rated in very poor condition.

Firmer futures supported cash prices for wheat, with Platts-assessed Canadian Western Red Spring Wheat 13.5% FOB Vancouver 30-45 days forward rising $3.86/metric ton on the day to $279.07/mt on April 23.

Seeding delays in Canada

In Canada, wet and cold conditions across the Prairies have delayed spring wheat planting, with few growers able to start seeding. Excessive moisture in key growing provinces including Saskatchewan and Alberta, has kept farmers out of fields, potentially shortening the planting window for this season.

“Looks like seeding could be a bit later than most guys would like,” a Canadian trader said. “It’s been cold and wet. Most guys have not started except in the south closer to the US border. They are not delayed but as you go further north it is a problem.”

“Not much, if any, seeding here yet as weather delays, so planting looking to be later this year,” a second trader said.

The Canadian Wheat Board’s most recent production forecast estimated the 2025-26 spring wheat crop at 29.3 million mt, though that projection predates the current planting delays. Late seeding can result in lower yields and increased crop vulnerability, though market participants voiced minimal concern for the upcoming crop.