North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola ends mixed

The ICE Futures canola market was mixed on Monday, with losses in the nearby November contract ahead of its expiry and gains in the more deferred months.

Losses in Chicago soybeans accounted for some spillover selling pressure in the canola market, but a firmer tone in soyoil and softness in the Canadian dollar provided underlying support.

There were no changes for canola in updated supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released Oct. 21, with ending stocks for the 2022/23 marketing year left at 500,000 tonnes.

With the canola harvest wrapped up across most of the Prairies, seasonal harvest pressure was thought to be subsiding. Historically wide crush margins and supportive chart signals also helped underpin the futures.

About 38,516 canola contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 40,985 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 28,180 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Monday, as the advancing harvest weighed on values.

Conditions are forecast to remain relatively favourable for good harvest progress across the Midwest over the next week, with the influx of deliveries off the combine weighing on values.

Persistent issues moving grain along the Mississippi River, due to low water levels, were causing backlogs in the system which also weighed on values.

However, good export demand should remain supportive. Weekly United States soybean exports came in at 2.89 million tonnes, which was well ahead of the five-year average for the week.

CORN was also pressured by the advancing harvest and Mississippi backlogs on Monday.

Weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 470,000 tonnes were up slightly from the previous week, but off what moved during the same week a year ago.

In outside news, France’s corn crop was 92 per cent harvested, according to reports out of the country, well ahead of the 30 per cent pace at this time a year ago.

Brazil’s next corn crop was forecast at 25.2 million tonnes by Safras and Mercado, which would be up by 15 per cent on the year. The larger second crop was pegged at 87.8 million tonnes, up by 3.4 million tonnes on the year.

WHEAT was down across the board, as shifting sentiment on Ukrainian grain exports remained at the forefront of the market. Movement through the Black Sea still facing some question marks.

Dryness in Argentina and flooding in Australia were also being followed by wheat traders, as the adverse weather cuts into the production prospects in those Southern Hemisphere growing areas.

Tags: Market, estimates, harvest, corn, canola, soybeans, wheat, soyoil, futures