Nigeria’s wheat imports to fall by 5.6% amid declining consumer purchasing power

Nigeria’s wheat imports in the MY 2026/27 are forecast to decline by 5.6% to 5.6 mln tons, compared with 5.93 mln tons in the previous season. According to FAS USDA, the main factors behind the decline are high food inflation, weak household income growth and rising international logistics costs. Nigeria remains the largest wheat importer in sub-Saharan Africa, while limited domestic production continues to leave the country heavily dependent on foreign supplies.

Domestic wheat consumption in Nigeria is forecast at 5.4 mln tons in 2026/27, down 500 thsd tons from the previous season. Weaker demand reflects declining real household incomes, as wage growth has failed to keep pace with rising fuel, transportation and food costs. Despite flour prices falling by approximately 12% in the year to May 2026, bakeries have been forced to reduce loaf sizes and adjust recipes to keep retail bread prices below 1,000 naira, or around $0.74.

Nigeria’s domestic wheat production remains limited and is projected by USDA to decline to 120 thsd tons in 2026/27, compared with 130 thsd tons a year earlier. Planted area is expected to decrease from 120 thsd to 110 thsd hectares, with average yields estimated at approximately 1.1 t/ha. The main factor behind lower production is deteriorating security conditions in the northern states, where most wheat cultivation is concentrated. Armed conflicts, attacks on farmers and high production costs are restricting planting activity and discouraging investment in the agricultural sector.

To increase domestic output, the Nigerian government is implementing the National Agricultural Growth Support Scheme – Agro-Pocket, which provides wheat farmers with subsidies covering 25% of seed costs and 50% of fertilizer expenses. Farmers also receive access to credit, insurance and modern agricultural technologies. In addition, the new Project Wheat-ness initiative aims to strengthen the entire wheat production and processing value chain. Authorities estimate that approximately 3.5 mln hectares of land have potential for irrigated wheat cultivation, although implementing these plans will require substantial investment.

Further challenges for importers include Black Sea shipping disruptions and higher freight rates, which are complicating grain shipments from key suppliers — Ukraine, Romania and Russia. Vessel rerouting is increasing transit times and the final cost of imported wheat. According to USDA estimates, Nigeria’s wheat ending stocks could fall to just 250 thsd tons by the end of the MY 2026/27 on July 31. This would increase the domestic market’s vulnerability to fluctuations in global wheat prices, logistics costs and exchange rates.

Tags: wheat, imports, Nigeria