Nigeria’s grain production is expected to face challenges in the 2026–2027 marketing year due to rising input costs, while demand continues to increase. According to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the United States Department of Agriculture, stronger purchasing power and a more stable currency are supporting consumption growth despite production constraints.
Corn production, the country’s largest grain crop, is projected to reach 10.9 million tonnes, marking a 5% decline compared to the previous season. Harvested area is also expected to shrink by 8% to 4.8 million hectares, reflecting reduced farmer incentives to expand cultivation.
The main pressure comes from sharply rising production costs. Fertilizer prices increased by around 50% during the previous growing season, while expenses for fuel, herbicides, and labor in some cases doubled or even tripled. As a result, many farmers are struggling to cover costs, leading to financial losses and reduced planting activity.
At the same time, imports are becoming more attractive. Global grain prices are expected to remain lower than domestic prices, and the strengthening of the national currency, the naira, is making imports more affordable. Corn imports are forecast to rise to 650,000 tonnes, significantly higher than the previous year.
A similar trend is seen in the rice sector. Production is projected to fall by 6% to 8.3 million tonnes, while consumption is expected to increase to 9 million tonnes. Population growth and urbanization are driving demand for rice, which is favored for its convenience and affordability. Imports are expected to reach 3.5 million tonnes to help meet domestic needs.
Nigeria remains heavily dependent on wheat imports. Domestic production is estimated at just 140,000 tonnes, while imports are projected to rise to 7.2 million tonnes to meet total demand of 6.8 million tonnes. Consumption of wheat-based products such as bread, pasta, and semolina continues to grow, particularly in urban areas.
Overall, despite declining production, Nigeria’s grain consumption is set to rise steadily. This widening gap between supply and demand is likely to increase reliance on imports and could pose long-term challenges for the country’s food security.
