Nigeria to increase wheat imports to 7.2 mln tons in 2026/27

Nigeria may increase wheat imports to 7.2 mln tons in the MY 2026/27, up 500 thsd tons, or about 7%, from the previous season. According to USDA FAS, purchases are expected to rise amid a more stable foreign exchange market, improved access to foreign currency for importers and continued growth in domestic demand.

Wheat consumption in the country is forecast at 6.8 mln tons, up 6% from 2025/26. Demand is being supported by lower prices for wheat-based products and recovering consumer purchasing power. Around 60% of wheat flour in Nigeria is used for bread production, while substantial volumes are also consumed by the pasta, noodles and other flour-based food industries.

Domestic production remains small compared with market needs. USDA FAS forecasts Nigeria’s 2026/27 wheat crop at just 140 thsd tons, although this would be 7% higher than a year earlier. More than 70% of the crop is grown in Jigawa and Kano states. In addition, locally produced wheat often has relatively low protein content and does not fully meet quality requirements for bread, pasta and noodle production, supporting continued demand for imported grain.

The United States remains one of the suppliers that could expand its presence in the Nigerian market. According to USDA FAS, Nigeria imported $440 mln worth of U.S. wheat in January–November 2025, 3.5 times more than a year earlier, becoming the fifth-largest market for U.S. wheat. Major Nigerian flour mills have also indicated plans to increase purchases of U.S. grain due to competitive prices and quality.

Nigeria is simultaneously trying to reduce its dependence on imports through input subsidies and programs aimed at expanding domestic wheat production. However, the gap between local output and consumption remains wide, meaning imports will continue to be the country’s main source of wheat. USDA FAS also expects ending stocks to rise by 32% to 577 thsd tons as imports increase.

Tags: wheat, imports, Nigeria