Nigeria to increase corn imports by 160% as production declines

Nigeria could significantly increase imports of major grains in 2026/27 amid high production costs, low mechanization and declining domestic output. According to FAS USDA, wheat imports are forecast to rise by 7% to 7.2 mln tons, corn imports by 160% to 650 thsd tons, and rice imports by 9% to 3.5 mln tons.

Wheat will remain the country’s largest grain import. Nigeria’s wheat consumption is forecast at 6.8 mln tons in 2026/27, up 6% from the previous season. Domestic production, despite an expected 7% increase, will amount to just 140 thsd tons. The European Union remains the leading supplier, accounting for around 45% of Nigeria’s wheat imports.

Corn production, meanwhile, is expected to decline by 5% to 10.9 mln tons. High fertilizer, fuel and crop protection costs, combined with lower grain prices, are prompting farmers to reduce planted area. Some producers are switching to soybeans, which currently offer higher profitability, contributing to a sharp increase in the country’s demand for imported corn.

Rice production is forecast to decline by 6% to 8.3 mln tons, while consumption could reach 9 mln tons. The sector is also facing significantly higher production costs and low purchasing prices. Due to insufficient supplies of paddy rice, around 60% of the country’s rice mills are either idle or operating at a loss.

Nigeria remains heavily dependent on food imports. Between 2021 and 2024, the country imported around $11.6 bln worth of food, more than twice its agricultural export revenues. At the same time, the government is gradually liberalizing imports, including removing some additional duties on agricultural products. With the population continuing to grow and limited scope for a rapid increase in domestic production, grain imports could rise further.

Tags: wheat, imports, Nigeria, corn, rice