New quotas will reduce Ukraine’s agricultural exports to the EU by $1.1 bln annually

Ukraine’s exports to the European Union will suffer a significant reduction in revenues after the introduction of new tariff rate quotas.

This is evidenced by the results of the study “New EU Tariff Rate Quotas for Ukrainian Products: Impact on Exports”, conducted by the German Economic Team and the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).

“Compared to the temporary autonomous trade measures (ATMs), which provided duty-free access from June 2022 to June 2025, the new tariff rate quotas will lead to a sharp drop in exports,” say the authors of the report – IER Academic Director Veronika Movchan and Economic Policy Advisor at Berlin Economics Riccardo Giucci.

Analysts estimate that Ukraine’s exports to the EU will decrease by $1.144 billion per year compared to 2024. The main reason for these losses is the sharp expected decline in wheat exports, which are forecast to fall by $894 billion annually, accounting for four-fifths of the total reduction in exports to the EU. Sugar, barley, poultry, eggs, apple juice and honey are also among the seven product groups that will suffer losses.

“However, when comparing the new quotas with the old tariff rate quotas that were in force until June 2022, the changes represent a significant liberalization of trade,” the experts admit.

They add that four old quotas were abolished and 26 were expanded. The most significant expansion occurred for honey, sugar, barley groats and bran.

“This liberalization offers a potential expansion of duty-free exports by $630 million per year, or 35% of the total increase, and could save exporters up to $165 million annually in import duties,” the experts calculated.

At the same time, Ukrainian exporters are expected to redirect excess volumes to markets outside the EU. The estimated annual reduction in exports to the EU will be partially offset by $891 million in reoriented exports to other destinations.

Accordingly, the estimated annual reduction in Ukraine’s total exports is more moderate at $253 million. This is equivalent to only 0.6% of total exports in 2024.

Tags: agricultural products, restrictions, Ukraine, export, EU