Morocco braces for higher wheat import costs as global reserves hit decade low

Morocco faces mounting pressure on its grain import bill as global wheat stocks are projected to fall to their lowest levels in nearly a decade, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts released this August 2025.

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report reveals that global wheat reserves could drop to 256.2 million tons for the 2025/2026 campaign, a critical threshold not seen since 2016/2017. This tightening supply situation stems from disappointing harvests across major producing regions including Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.

Global wheat production is estimated at 789.8 million tons, down 2.1 million tons from July projections, while consumption remains robust at 801.6 million tons. This widening gap between supply and demand is creating upward pressure on international prices, particularly affecting import-dependent nations.

For Morocco, where bread remains a dietary staple and wheat accounts for over half of cereal consumption, the implications are significant. The kingdom already imports more than 50% of its wheat requirements, with USDA projections indicating imports could reach 7.5 million tons in 2025/2026, up from the previous campaign.

Recent trade data from Morocco’s National Federation of Cereal and Legume Traders shows evolving import patterns. Between January and July 2025, durum wheat imports surged 24% to 825,789 tons, while soft wheat imports declined 16% to 2.63 million tons. Overall cereal imports dropped 11% to 5.8 million tons, reflecting market adjustments to changing price dynamics.

The tightening global market poses strategic challenges for Morocco’s food security. Diversifying import sources between Europe, the Black Sea region, and North America has become essential.
Long-term solutions require accelerating agricultural reforms, including modernizing cereal production, expanding irrigation infrastructure, and crop diversification to reduce structural dependence on volatile international markets.

Tags: stocks, Morocco, consumption, grain, Production, wheat, imports