Mexico’s corn production expected to decline amid rising costs

Mexico’s corn production is forecast at 24.3 million tonnes in the MY 2026/27, down 2% from the previous season. The anticipated decline is mainly attributed to rising production costs and relatively low domestic corn prices, which are reducing farmers’ profitability.

As a result of weaker economic incentives, the harvested corn area is projected to decrease by 4% to 6.4 million hectares. The most significant reductions are expected in the states of Jalisco, Michoacán and Guanajuato, which together account for around 35% of the country’s total corn output.

According to analysts, some farmers in the Bajío region of Michoacán and the Valle de Santiago area of Guanajuato plan to shift from corn to sorghum. Producers view sorghum as a more attractive alternative due to its lower production costs.

At the same time, corn demand in Mexico continues to grow, driven primarily by the expanding livestock and feed sectors. Against this backdrop, corn imports in 2026/27 are projected to increase by 2% to 27 million tonnes. The United States is expected to remain the country’s dominant supplier.

In the 2025/26 season, Mexico ranked seventh globally in corn production with 24.6 million tonnes, first in corn imports with 27 million tonnes, and fourth in corn consumption at 51.6 million tonnes. These figures highlight the country’s strong reliance on imports to meet domestic demand.

While corn production is expected to decline, output of other grains is forecast to improve. Wheat production could rise by 14% to 2 million tonnes, supported by a partial recovery in reservoir levels in Sonora and Sinaloa. Rice production is projected to increase by 4% to 192,000 tonnes, while sorghum output is expected to jump 15% to 4.2 million tonnes due to its lower production costs compared with other grain crops.

Tags: crop forecast, Mexico