Corn prices in Turkey surge as Ukrainian supplies decline

Domestic corn prices in Turkey have risen sharply due to tight supplies, reduced shipments from Ukraine, and the expiration of the country’s reduced-tariff import quota. According to ASAP Agri grain market analyst Inna Stepanenko, supply constraints are expected to persist at least until the new harvest gathers pace.

According to the Konya Commodity Exchange, corn prices reached around $300/ton on July 31, up $32/ton from the beginning of the month. By August 4, prices had climbed further to approximately $302/ton. Market participants estimate Turkey’s 2026 corn production at around 6 mln tons, below the USDA forecast of 7.1 mln tons.

One of the main drivers behind the price increase is the near absence of large-volume corn shipments from Ukraine. Disruptions at Ukraine’s deep-water Black Sea ports have limited export availability, while existing stocks in Turkey are concentrated in the hands of a small number of major importers. In addition, Ukrainian exporters are currently prioritizing wheat and barley shipments over corn.

Another factor supporting prices was the expiration on July 31 of Turkey’s 3 mln-ton reduced-duty corn import quota. After the temporary 5% tariff expired, the import duty returned to 130%. Turkey imported about 2.73 mln tons of corn under the quota.

Market participants expect the supply shortage to continue for another one to two weeks until the domestic harvest accelerates. However, corn prices could remain elevated even after new-crop supplies enter the market if Ukrainian exports do not recover fully.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, Turkey, prices