May is marked by great exports and sideway prices on the physical soybean market

The market ended May with another significant volume of soybean exports, while farmer selling remained slower, reflecting prices with little fluctuation but still at high levels for the crop context. On the physical market, prices moved sideways throughout the month, with slight changes. In Chicago, the scenario was similar: the contract fluctuated within a range of approximately 40 cents, without indicating a clear short-term direction. The dollar, on the other hand, behaved similarly, with a slightly bearish bias, despite volatility.

Premiums remained firm, supported by the strong pace of exports. More than 51 mln tons have already been shipped, with China buying 7% more than in the same period last year. Brazil remains the main supplier of grain to the Chinese market. If this pace is maintained, premiums tend to remain sustained until the end of the year. On the other hand, this could compromise the competitiveness of the new US crop, which, combined with the expectation of a full crop there, tends to put pressure on second-half contracts for a more seasonal correction.

At the moment, the situation on the commodities exchange is marked by uncertainty. On the one hand, the US weather is favorable, and planting progress remains satisfactory. On the other hand, the area is tight, and any adjustments or losses in productivity could affect final production. For this reason, the month of June is crucial, especially due to supply and demand reports. Another factor to watch out for is the risk of trade tension between China and the United States, which could affect Chinese exports and, consequently, final US stocks.

Thus, the market continues to operate within a range, waiting for more consistent progress in the US crop. Soon, the first figures on the next Brazilian crop will also start to appear on the radar. Based on recent productivity and the potential for increased area in 2025, Brazil could reap another bumper crop—possibly over 180 mln tons—which would be quite bearish for contracts in the first half of 2026.

For now, in the short term, the market continues to be guided by the combination of US area, climate, and Chinese demand, within a still unstable geopolitical scenario. Without a clear trend, price movements tend to occur at specific moments, as new information is priced.

According to a survey by Safras & Mercado, the commercialization of the 2024/25 crop in Brazil has already reached 64% of the projected production, with data collected up to June 6. In the previous report, from May 9, the number was 57%. In the same period last year, trading was at 71.8%, while the five-year average for the period is 76.9%. Considering an estimated output of 172.45 mln tons, the volume already negotiated totals 110.35 mln tons.

As for the 2025/26 crop, with a projection of 182.57 mln tons, sales in advance reach 10.8%, approximately 19.73 mln tons. In the same period last year, the commitment was 14.6%, and the average for the period is 20.6%. In the previous report, the rate was 7.9%, which shows recent progress but is still below historical standards.

In Argentina, despite specific problems, the harvest heads for full production. In the United States, even with the reduction in acreage, planting continues without major difficulties, with 67% of crops in good or excellent condition. Special attention now to the USDA monthly report, which will be released on June 12. On the 30th, the focus will turn to the survey on acreage. The market’s biggest question is whether the cut in the area will actually be confirmed, as indicated in the planting intentions previously disclosed.

Tags: China, exports, Brazil, prices, soybeans, US, crop, stocks, Market