MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, May 23 – 30, 2025

CONTENT Black Sea & Danube Grain / Oilseed Report:

Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/

Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/

All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en

• Pressure of russian, Ukrainian, Kazakh wheat in Italy, in MENA countries
• Ukraine: Grain prices flat, market waits for a new crop
• Soil moisture in Ukraine improved, but frequent rains do not allow farmers to stay on schedule with key field operations
• The 2025 record peas areas were under stress of April frosts
• Rapeseed: pessimism becomes base case. Do not switch off — the 2025 Ukrainian rapeseed story may still hold more surprises
• Rapeseed yield downgrade freezes forward deals
• Debates over export duties on rapeseed while EU voices concern.
• Soybean sowing progressing fast; sunflower planting still behind, but gap closing
• The 2024 crop sales limited; farmers hold stocks for better prices
• Corn market: Price stability in Poland, but farmers reluctant to sell old stocks
• Romania: Winter crops strong; wheat yield +21% vs. 5-yr avg
• Romania: Corn & sunseed margins under pressure: corn yield of 7 mt/ha needed to break even
• Serbia’s agri exports up 9.5% y/y. Wheat harvest looks promising, but prices may fall post-harvest
• russia: Sunflower areas are likely to reach a new all-time high
• Pressure on both SFS and SFO markets will likely continue – UkrAgroConsult is bearish
• Rapeseed market: Contract making delayed in Poland: outlook for 2025–2026 is bullish
• Bulgaria–China talks to accelerate rapeseed meal exports

Tags: Kazakhstan, export, grain, Romania, price, EU, Ukraine, Poland, China, Serbia, sunflower oil, wheat, Bulgaria, rapeseed, corn, rapeseed meal