Malaysian palm oil prices to range RM4,400-RM4,600 in March, as emerging markets offset key buyer decline — MPOC

Malaysian palm oil price is expected to range between RM4,400 and RM4,600 per tonne in March, with emerging markets, such as Sub-Saharan Africa, filling the gap in demand from key buyers, like India and China.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC), in a statement on Monday, said that despite weaker demand from traditional markets, palm oil has remained the price leader in the first quarter of 2025, with exports shifting towards Sub-Saharan Africa — with its annual population growth of 30 million.

“This trend is expected to continue throughout 2025, keeping Malaysian palm oil exports strong,” it said.

For the first time in years, India’s palm oil imports dropped to 648,000 tonnes from January to February 2025, at a time when crude palm oil prices averaged RM4,700 per tonne. This was less than soybean oil imports, which totalled 727,000 tonnes.

Meanwhile, China has been importing only its core palm oil demand, averaging 300,000 tonnes per month in 2024.

MPOC expects crude palm oil prices to fluctuate between RM4,400 and RM4,600 per tonne in March, influenced by increased competition from abundant and competitively priced soybean oil in the global market.

That said, India’s shift toward soybean oil, however, has only partially replaced its palm oil demand, leading to optimism that palm oil imports will rise in the coming weeks as India replenishes its stocks, potentially stabilising prices.

Global vegetable oil consumption, largely driven by biodiesel production in recent years, is expected to decline in 2025, with biodiesel output forecasted to drop by 500,000 tonnes.

Indonesia is expected to be the only major producer where biodiesel production is expected to grow, while other regions may see stagnation or contraction.

As Malaysia and Indonesia’s export availability is monitored, palm oil prices are expected to remain range bound. A gradual production recovery from March, following the monsoon season, will add to market uncertainty and speculation about price trends.

Malaysian palm oil inventory fell to 1.51 million tonnes in February 2025, the lowest level since April 2023.

Palm oil production from January to February 2025 hit a three-year low at 2.42 million tonnes, compared to 2.66 million tonnes in 2024 and 2.63 million tonnes in 2023.

The decline in production was driven by harvest delays due to heavy rainfall and exhausted oil palm trees following strong production in early 2024.

A recovery in year-on-year production growth is expected only from August onwards.