Lower maize stocks in the US outweighed the rise in global production

Chicago corn futures rose sharply following the release of USDA’s August report, although the global corn balance for 2026/27 saw relatively minor changes. December futures jumped 4.4% to $189.3/t, mainly in response to a higher U.S. export forecast and a significant reduction in projected ending stocks.

USDA raised its forecast for U.S. corn exports in 2026/27 by 1.9 mln tons to 83.19 mln tons, while projected ending stocks were cut by 3.48 mln tons to 41.98 mln tons. The yield forecast was lowered from 183 to 180.7 bushels per acre. However, production remained nearly unchanged at 406.75 mln tons due to a 1.4 mln-acre increase in planted area to 96.7 mln acres.

USDA raised its 2026/27 global corn production forecast by 1.79 mln tons to 1.299 bln tons. Ukraine’s crop forecast was increased by 1.8 mln tons to 31.8 mln tons, while Russia’s was raised by 1.4 mln tons to 17.2 mln tons. These increases offset a sharp 3.58 mln-ton reduction in the EU crop forecast to 50.2 mln tons due to prolonged heat in France and Hungary.

At the same time, USDA raised its global corn export forecast by 0.6 mln tons to 210.48 mln tons. Ukraine’s export forecast, however, was cut by 1 mln tons to 22 mln tons, while its projected ending stocks were raised by 2.8 mln tons to 4.86 mln tons. China’s corn import forecast was lowered by 1 mln tons to 5 mln tons, while the EU import forecast was raised by 1 mln tons to 23.5 mln tons.

USDA lowered global corn ending stocks by just 0.6 mln tons to 274.66 mln tons, leaving the overall global balance largely unchanged. The U.S. crop outlook and the situation with Black Sea exports are expected to remain key market drivers in the near term. Favorable U.S. weather and the larger planted area could lead to further revisions to production estimates as harvesting progresses.

Tags: corn, USDA, prices, USA