Low profitability may curb sales of new crop wheat in Ukraine

The beginning of the harvest in Ukraine will be accompanied by a certain decrease in wheat prices against the backdrop of forecasts of a higher harvest and a seasonal increase in grain supply. At the same time, the limited willingness of farmers to sell wheat at current prices will support the market already in the second half of July. This was reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).

According to experts, the wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2025 will be 23.5–24 million tons, which is slightly higher than last year’s figure. “The harvest is expected to be larger than last year, and the market is already taking into account the factor of increased production. In the coming weeks, prices for food wheat may decrease by about $ 10 per ton. If the third class is currently traded at $214–217/t CPT-port, then during the active arrival of the new crop, a decrease to about $205/t is possible,” analysts note. At the same time, the key factor for the market will remain the activity of sales by producers.

“The cost of wheat production continues to grow, while current price levels ensure minimal profitability or even unprofitability of individual sales. Therefore, the issue of sales volumes of the new crop remains open. Currently, we do not observe the willingness of farmers to actively sell a significant part of the wheat immediately after harvesting. Most producers are considering the possibility of postponing sales in anticipation of better conditions. This may limit the supply on the market in the first weeks of the season,” experts believe.

At the same time, export demand for grain is active. More than 3 million tons of Ukrainian wheat have already been contracted for July-August, while forward purchases cover only part of the required volumes.

“In the second half of July, the market may receive additional support from exporters, who will need to ensure the fulfillment of already concluded contracts. After a short period of price pressure, we can expect market stabilization and a gradual recovery of quotations. The benchmark for third-class wheat may be a level of about $220 per ton CPT-port,” the PUSK predicts.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat, margin, harvesting