Land routes emerge as key price benchmark for Ukraine’s new-crop corn

Forward prices for Ukrainian corn shipped across the western border are rising amid a sharp decline in seaborne exports. Land-based routes are playing an increasingly important role in setting prices for the new crop, according to analysts at Spike Brokers.

With seaborne exports nearly halted, Ukrainian farmers are increasingly selling grain through the western border. Forward contracts for October-December delivery are being concluded at €192–194/t FCA Chop, while prices for January-June delivery stand at €198–206/t FCA Chop.

Spike Brokers notes that land-based exports are no longer simply an alternative to seaborne shipments but are becoming a separate price-setting hub for new-crop corn, particularly given steady demand from EU countries.

Meanwhile, global corn market fundamentals remain mixed. Favorable weather in the US is improving crop prospects, while corn conditions in Europe are deteriorating. In particular, the market estimates France’s corn production at only 9 mln tons, which could increase the European Union’s import requirements.

Prices are also supported by the risk of lower Ukrainian exports. According to Spike Brokers, Ukraine exported just 33.5 thsd tons of corn on August 1–6, while the seaborne export channel has virtually ceased operating.

Tags: corn, export, prices