Kazakhstan raises its 2025/26 wheat export forecast despite a weak May

Kazakhstan’s wheat exports fell by 24% month-on-month in May 2026 to 538 thsd tons. This was the first month of the current season in which shipments dropped below the level recorded in the corresponding period of the previous marketing year. The decline was attributed to seasonal factors, a stronger tenge and lower exporter margins following changes to VAT crediting and refunds.

Despite the weak May performance, Kazakhstan exported 7.22 mln tons of soft and durum wheat during the first nine months of the 2025/26 MY, up 19% year-on-year. The country has therefore already shipped almost 84% of its estimated export potential.

Central Asian countries remain the main destination for Kazakh wheat, accounting for 76.6% of total exports. Shipments to Uzbekistan increased by 44%, while exports to Afghanistan rose 2.8-fold, to Türkiye 27-fold and to Iran 360-fold. Deliveries to the United Kingdom, Belgium and the Netherlands also increased. Kazakhstan additionally supplied wheat to France and Tunisia, markets that received no shipments during the same period last season.

At the same time, exports declined to several traditional destinations. Wheat shipments to China fell 6.4-fold to 23 thsd tons, although this was offset by an 89% increase in feed flour exports to 1.28 mln tons. Deliveries to Azerbaijan, Italy, Georgia, Latvia and Turkmenistan also decreased.

The Grain Union of Kazakhstan also raised its forecast for the country’s wheat imports in 2025/26 by 100 thsd tons to 1.9 mln tons. Imports of Russian wheat reached 1.66 mln tons in September–May, 6.8 times higher than in the corresponding period of the previous season.

Owing to record shipment volumes in the preceding months, the Grain Union of Kazakhstan increased its forecast for total Kazakh wheat exports in 2025/26 by 400 thsd tons to 8.6 mln tons. Despite the May decline, full-season exports could therefore reach one of their highest levels in recent years.

Tags: Kazakhstan, export, wheat