In its July 9 update, the FAS projected Kazakhstan will harvest 13.8 million tonnes of wheat in 2025-26, down from an estimated record 16.5 million tonnes during the previous year. With farmers turning to oilseeds, the FAS revised its area planted to wheat down to 12.4 million hectares. Yields are seen at 1.11 tonnes/hectare.
“Post assesses wheat yields will decline year-to-year because some farmers are struggling financially, even with government support, to purchase sufficient amounts of fertilizer and plant protection productions,” the FAS said.
Wheat consumption for the Central Asian nation of about 21 million people is forecast at 7.5 million tonnes, based on the projected drop in production, the FAS said. Feed wheat consumption is expected to account for most of the decline.
Wheat is predominantly used to make flour for breads, pastries and other flour-based foods. According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, flour production reached 2.4 million tonnes during the first eight months of the 2024-25 marketing year (September to April), trending higher from the previous year.
Kazakhstan has 130 active flour mills, mostly concentrated in the main wheat growing regions. The country’s annual milling capacity is approximately 9 million tonnes, but most millers are reportedly now operating at less than 50% capacity because of rising export competition from Uzbekistan flour in third markets, rising input costs and reduced government support, the FAS said.
With 2025-26 wheat production projected to contract, the wheat export forecast was lowered to 7.5 million tonnes, down 2.5 million tonnes from the previous year. This assumes that Kazakh wheat prices will remain competitive compared to other regional exporters, namely Russia and Uzbekistan.
Ending wheat stocks are projected to fall by more than half from last year to about 1 million tonnes.
Barley production in 2025-26 is predicted to fall year-on-year to 3 million tonnes from 3.8 million because of an anticipated reduction in yields to more normal levels and reflective of the current economic realities, the FAS said.
With lower production, exports are projected to dip to 1.3 million tonnes from 1.9 million in 2024-25.
Used mostly for on-farm feed, barley consumption is seen at 2 million tonnes, down slightly from the previous year.
