Iraq to increase grain imports due to dry weather

Iraq’s 2026 cereal planting season was marked by challenging conditions due to early-season dryness. Limited rainfall in October–November hampered fieldwork and delayed crop establishment, while the government restricted irrigated areas بسبب water shortages. Rains in December partially replenished soil moisture, and above-average precipitation in January across northern regions improved crop conditions.

As of late February 2026, crop conditions were generally rated from near to above average, particularly in key northern producing areas. Favorable developments were supported by rainfall, irrigation availability, and government subsidies. However, weather conditions for the remainder of the season will be critical to maintaining yield potential.

Wheat production in 2025 is estimated at 4.4 million tons, about 4% below average. Early-season moisture deficits significantly constrained crop development, and improved spring rains were not sufficient to fully offset the impact.

Due to lower domestic output, Iraq is expected to increase wheat imports in the 2025/26 marketing year (July–June) to around 2.4 million tons, nearly 8% above the five-year average.

Despite production challenges, food prices remain relatively stable. In February 2026, average retail prices of wheat flour and rice declined by about 6% and 8% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting adequate domestic supply and the impact of government subsidy programs supporting consumer access to staple foods.

Tags: Iraq, crop forecast, wheat, imports, crop condition