Indonesia wheat, rice imports forecast to fall

Decreased wheat demand for feed use and increased rice production will lead to sharply reduced Indonesian imports in the 2024-25 marketing year, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The agency sees the country’s wheat imports declining from last year’s record of 12.9 million tonnes as reduced consumer demand for poultry meat has led feed mills to cut back on wheat-based feed production.

“Indonesia’s 2024-25 wheat imports are forecast to decline by 8% from 2023-24, when higher demand from feed mills, consumption of wheat flour-based food from major events in early 2024, and demand for cheaper alternatives to rice drove imports up to new record highs,” the FAS said.

All of Indonesia’s wheat is imported, with about 32% of it coming from Australia and 20% from Canada last year. Much of it goes to P.T. Bogasari Flour Mills, which operates one of the world’s largest mills with a daily production capacity of nearly 12,000 tonnes (wheat equivalent) and an annual capacity of more than 4 million tonnes.

The reason for the projected 74% year-on-year decline in Indonesia’s rice imports is a 3% increase in production to 34 million tonnes, said the FAS, which forecasts this year’s imports at 1 million tonnes, down from 3.9 million in 2023-24.

The FAS said the steep decline in imports stems from “forecast increases in 2024-25 rice production and considering the new Prabowo administration’s stated priority of becoming self-sufficient in rice within the next five years.”

Even with the projected rice production increase, the 2024-25 total would still be well below the record output of 37 million tonnes in 2017-18.

Tags: Indonesia, rice, wheat