Indonesia to cut palm oil exports by nearly 15% in 2027 – GAPKI

Indonesia’s exports of palm oil and palm oil products could fall by nearly 15% in 2027 to 26.5 mln tons, compared with 31.1 mln tons expected in 2026. The decline will reflect a combination of lower production and stronger domestic consumption, according to industry association GAPKI.

Crude palm oil production in the world’s largest producing country is forecast at 51.7 mln tons next year, down from 53.7 mln tons in 2026. Plantation yields are expected to be affected by dry weather linked to the El Niño phenomenon observed this year.

GAPKI estimates that 2027 production will be around 5% below the potential level that could have been achieved without the negative impact of El Niño. Weather conditions have already caused prolonged drought in Indonesia and worsened forest fires.

At the same time, the amount of palm oil available for export is expected to decline as domestic demand rises. Consumption growth is forecast from both the food industry and the bioenergy sector.

An additional driver of domestic demand will be Indonesia’s mandatory use of diesel containing 50% palm oil-based biodiesel. Meanwhile, Indonesian exports of palm oil products still increased by 3.3% year-on-year in August 2026.

Tags: export, Indonesia, palm oil