India’s wheat output may fall by up to 10% due to adverse weather

According to traders and market participants, heavy rains and hailstorms between March and mid-April significantly reduced yields in key producing regions. The most affected states include Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, which together account for more than 80% of the country’s wheat production.

Some analysts estimate output could drop by around 5% from last year’s record 117.9 million tons, while more pessimistic projections suggest a decline of up to 10% — to about 106 million tons, the lowest level in seven years.

Despite the expected decline, no supply shortages are anticipated in the domestic market. Strong inventories built after the robust 2025 harvest are likely to keep prices stable. As of early April, government wheat stocks rose by 85% year-on-year to 21.8 million tons — nearly three times the target level.

The Indian government has already approved additional wheat export quotas, bringing the total to 5 million tons. At the same time, state procurement is likely to fall short of the target, reaching 26–28 million tons versus the planned 30.3 million tons, due to lower yields and slower early-season purchases.