India’s Rice Tsunami Is Crashing Global Prices-Here’s Who’s Getting Hit Hardest

Asia’s rice market is entering a deep correction phase as a flood of Indian grain meets soft global demand, pushing prices to their weakest point in a decade. Benchmark Thai white rice 5% broken dropped to $351 per ton on Oct. 22—the lowest since September 2015, data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association showed. While this decline could ease inflationary pressures for consumers, it’s becoming a painful adjustment for producers from India to Thailand, where millers are now selling at discounts of at least 3% compared with Indian quotes just to stay in the game.

Behind the drop lies a perfect storm of oversupply and hesitation. India’s record crop is hitting global markets just as major buyers step back. The Philippines, the world’s top importer, plans to extend its ban on foreign purchases until April to support its domestic farmers, while West African importers are sitting on stockpiles covering up to five months of consumption. Traders like Dubai-based Invictus Trading Fze are now spreading out their purchases from India, betting that prices could drift even lower in the coming months.

According to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, global rice production could reach a record 556.4 million tons in 2025–26, fueled by India’s robust harvest that began in late September. Officials in Telangana have started exploring new destinations—from Benin to Kuwait—to offload surplus supply and support local farmers. Yet analysts warn that the market’s bearish tone may persist, with domestic Indian prices possibly falling another 10% to 15% amid abundant supply and restrained overseas demand.

Tags: prices, rice, India, Thailand, purchases, Market, demand, white rice, Asia