India set for record wheat planting as soil moisture and prices rise

India, the world’s second-largest wheat producer, is on track to achieve a record expansion of wheat acreage in the 2025/26 season. Farmers are expected to increase planted area by around 5% from last year, surpassing the previous record of 34.16 million hectares. The surge is driven by unexpectedly heavy October rains that improved soil moisture and by higher anticipated returns from wheat cultivation.

October rainfall across India was 49% above the long-term average, with northwestern regions – the country’s grain basket – receiving 161% above normal. These conditions have encouraged farmers to shift from drought-resistant crops like chickpeas back to wheat, particularly in key states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. As of November 14, sowing had already covered 6.62 million hectares – 17% more than at the same point last year.

The government has bolstered the trend by raising the minimum support price (MSP) for wheat by 6.6% to 2,585 rupees ($30.50) per 100 kg, making the crop more attractive compared with competing pulses and oilseeds. Last season’s harvest had already hit a record 117.5 million tonnes, helping rebuild depleted stocks after heatwaves and export curbs in 2022–23. Analysts now expect the upcoming crop to exceed even that level.

Higher domestic output is likely to ease upward pressure on local wheat prices, which have risen in recent months due to tight supplies. A bumper harvest could also allow New Delhi to gradually relax restrictions on wheat flour exports, which were imposed to safeguard domestic food security, potentially providing relief to global grain markets.

Overall, the anticipated record sowing marks a strong recovery for India’s farm sector after years of climate challenges. With a population exceeding 1.4 billion to feed, both farmers and policymakers are optimistic that favorable weather in the critical January–March period will translate into another year of robust production and greater price stability.

Tags: sown area, crop forecast, wheat, India